Like Rwanda in April 1994, Burundi in April 1995 appeared to be on the verge of an all-out ethnic war. The country's Hutu and Tutsi power-sharing government seemed increasingly marginalized as extremist groups appeared to be guiding the deteriorating course of events. I went to Burundi, meeting with senior government officials, UN authorities, foreign diplomats, and others, and had this report. In late 1993, Melchior Ndadaye, Burundi's first freely-elected Hutu president was assassinated by renegade elements of the country's Tutsi-controlled army. His death triggered an ethnic bloodbath that left 50-thousand to 100-thousand people dead.
Then one year later -- on April 6th, 1994 -- Mr. Ndadaye's successor was killed in the same plane crash as Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps as many as one-million people, mainly Tutsi, were killed in Rwanda.
But there was no new slaughter in Burundi -- perhaps because of the earlier violence, perhaps because of the horror of what occurred in Rwanda, but also because all parties in Burundi, Hutu and Tutsi alike, adhered to calls for restraint.
Now, though, violence is again on the increase. Hardly a day passes that three people or 12 people or 22 people or more are reported killed in what has become a gnawing, debilitating low-intensity conflict between Hutu and Tutsi extremist groups -- extremist groups whose activities seem increasingly to dictate the course of events in Burundi. No one is ever caught or brought to justice, reinforcing the sense of ethnic hatred and suspicion. Many top officials in the Burundian government as well as in the foreign diplomatic community say openly the country is on the verge of an all-out civil war. And they indicate there seems to be little hope that an explosion can be avoided.
The government, split between Hutu and Tutsi, seems paralyzed, not able to act to halt the violence without the support of the military. The military, fearing any power-sharing measures that might compromise Tutsi control over security in the country, seems unwilling to work with civilian politicians. But at the same time, top officers blame the government for failing to come up with a strategy for tackling the crisis.
For its part, the international community, strapped by a host of crises around the globe, seems unsure about what to do other than to warn repeatedly against a new, Rwanda-like slaughter.
Meanwhile, the situation remains dangerously volatile -- with people living in an almost constant state of fear. That fear has already led to fresh rounds of what diplomats liken to ethnic cleansing. The minority Tutsi, fearing attacks from majority Hutu, appear to be forcing them out of urban centers like Bujumbura and into the countryside. The result is what one foreign official describes as a form of apartheid more complete than the former white minority regime in South Africa was ever able to devise.
In recent days, foreign residents, responding to the latest violence, have begun to flee abroad. Rwandan Hutu refugees who took shelter in northern Burundi last year have also tried to flee, fearing they may get caught up in the ongoing ethnic conflict. Even senior Burundian officials are said to have begun sending their families out of the country.
It is a bleak picture and the sense of foreboding is great. Some political leaders are calling on Burundians to rise above ethnicity and to embrace reconciliation in the interests of peace and security.
But that may be easier said than done. This week, as he launched a planned month-long campaign aimed at easing tensions, Burundi's President Sylvestre Ntibantunganya, a Hutu, toured various parts of Bujumbura. He received a mixed reception.
In some neighborhoods he faced open hostility. In others he was welcomed with cheers. Not surprisingly, the reactions were divided largely along ethnic lines.
Perhaps even more disturbing, though, in some areas, his visit went ignored or unnoticed.
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