There was a long gap until my next visit to Angola, which finally came in June of 1997. At that time, Angola was reeling from the impact of the political change in the former Zaire. Some observers were saying that change might in the long run help bolster the chances for peace in Angola, but others argued the peace process could be further jeopardized.A diplomat deeply involved in Angola's peace process says the country has been rocked by strong tremors from the political earthquake in neighboring Zaire. But the diplomat says Angola's buildings are still standing -- at least for the moment -- as the country's rival sides wait for the dust to settle.
Jonas Savimbi, the leader of Angola's rebel UNITA movement appears on the surface to be the big loser from the turmoil next door. He was closely allied with former Zairean President Mobutu Sese Seko. UNITA used Zairean territory as a strategic support base -- to import weapons and other critical supplies -- and as an avenue for exporting diamonds and other resources from the territory it still controls.
Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, on the other hand, appears to be in a much stronger position because of Mobutu's departure and the rise to power of Laurent Kabila. He has worked to cultivate close relations with Kabila's alliance. His government has provided military and other support to the new Congolese leaders.
The United Nations Special Envoy in Angola, Alioune Blondin Beye, says the trick now is to convince Mr. Dos Santos to show restraint at his moment of triumph while at the same time minimizing Mr. Savimbi's sense of loss and isolation.
“We have to see that for the first time since Angola's independence, you have two friendly regimes in Kinshasa and Luanda. So normally, that should have a rather positive impact on the process -- provided that on the one hand, that is the government side, they should be able to dominate (control) this advantage of theirs, and for UNITA’s part, they should not be feeling too sorry for themselves, because that could become negative.”
Mr. Beye and other diplomats are working hard these days to urge the government not to act boldly and to persuade Mr. Savimbi that his ultimate salvation lies in throwing his full support behind the peace process, launched in 1994.
With millions upon millions of dollars invested in that process, as well as the deployment of what has been the world's largest peacekeeping force, the international community's interest in protecting its investment is enormous.
Diplomats say much has been achieved, despite repeated delays and setbacks. Although Mr. Savimbi remains in the countryside, refusing to travel to the capital, Luanda, he has been given formal government recognition as Angola's main opposition leader. A unity government linking the country's rival Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, and UNITA has been formed. And UNITA deputies to the country's parliament have moved to the capital. Former soldiers on both sides are being demobilized and a new unified army is being formed. Efforts at economic reconstruction are under way, bolstered by new offshore oil discoveries.
But there are ominous signs of possible new trouble ahead -- all of it linked to the political change in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Fresh fighting has been reported in northeastern Angola along the border, with government troops seizing positions once held by UNITA close to some of the rebel movement's major diamond fields.
Resentment as well as violence have marred recent efforts by the country's new power-sharing administration to extend its authority into rebel-held areas.
There are hints of a split in the UNITA movement between those officials in Luanda and those with Mr. Savimbi in the bush.
No one seems to think that a revival of Angola's long and bloody civil war is imminent. But diplomats say the brake-lining of the peace process has worn dangerously thin -- at a time when the costly UN peacekeeping operation is being slowly phased out.
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