UNITA 2001: Bouncing Back Or On the Verge of Collapse?

Angolan rebel leader Jonas Savimbi says in an exclusive interview that his UNITA rebel movement is bouncing back militarily. But as I reported in March 2001, US officials were painting a bleak picture of the rebel group's true prospects on the battlefield.

Jonas Savimbi acknowledges UNITA's forces have suffered through grim times - losing their strongholds in a series of government offensives during the past two years.

But in a satellite telephone interview, the UNITA leader says the worst is over, and the rebels are now making a comeback. Mr. Savimbi says he decided to break 18 months of silence precisely because he feels safe. He says UNITA has reorganized its forces, and now, with their increased mobility, rebel units are within 100 kilometers of the Angolan capital, Luanda.

US officials acknowledge UNITA can still stage attacks that disrupt life in Angola. But overall, these officials say, rebel fortunes have been on a steady decline. They estimate UNITA's active forces now number 10-thousand at most - less than half of its estimated strength in recent years. They say these rebel forces are under-equipped andpoorly-supplied. They also say tightened international sanctions mean there are no longer any significant flows of weapons and other materiel to UNITA units.

Analysts say that could be part of the reason why Mr. Savimbi, in his interview, has called for a new dialogue with the government.

But US officials appear skeptical about the prospects for any new peace talks. For one, they say Angolan authorities would probably only be interested in negotiating Mr. Savimbi's surrender or exile - and the rebel leader is not likely to accept either. For another, these US officials believe that after so many years of fighting, Angola's government finds it convenient and profitable to allow the rebels to continue to operate – provided the capital remains peaceful and rebel activities are by and large limited to remote rural areas.

The government in this way can blame the rebels for continued military spending, which has been a known source of official corruption.