Zimbabwe 10 Years Ago: Disenchantment with Mr. Mugabe, President-for-Life

On March 29th, Zimbabweans will vote in national elections. The vote comes at a time when the country is in a deep crisis: a political, economic and social crisis. It is a crisis that has been several years in the making. So I now begin a series of reports looking back in time at developments in Zimbabwe, beginning with a report I filed in late January 1998 after food price riots in the country prompted me to fly to Harare and evaluate the situation: The government of Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe sees a conspiracy behind the recent series of strikes, price riots, and other disturbances that have rocked the country. But ordinary Zimbabweans are scoffing at the notion of a plot aimed at discrediting Mr. Mugabe – a plot purportedly linking his political opponents, the country's tiny white minority, and the international community.

Last week's food price riots in Zimbabwe led to the first deployment of army troops to help police restore order since the country's independence in 1980.

The troops are being withdrawn and the government says calm has returned. But public disenchantment with President Robert Mugabe appears to remain high.

Zimbabweans are openly accusing the President and his top ministers of mismanaging the economy. They charge the 73-year-old Mr. Mugabe and his allies are out of touch with reality and insulated by their own wealth from the economic suffering of the average citizen.

Political analyst and University of Zimbabwe professor John Makumbe agrees. He believes the government has overstayed its welcome after 18-years in power.

“The current leaders have become callous in their approach to governance in the sense of looking after themselves, accumulating wealth and basically making themselves as comfortable as possible regardless of the economic belt-tightening that the nation is being called upon to exercise.”

The leader of the powerful Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, Morgan Tsvangirai, is among those who have called on Mr. Mugabe to step down and make way for fresh, young leaders with new ideas. His labor organization is considering another nationwide strike next month like the one it organized in December (1997) to protest the country's deteriorating economic conditions. That strike brought the nation to a standstill.

Diplomats and other analysts believe there is likely to be an escalating series of such demonstrations in the months ahead -- increasing the pressure on Mr. Mugabe.

But Information Minister Chen Chimutengwende, in recent interviews, has ridiculed suggestions the president might step down.

The government appears to be looking to a potential multi-million dollar credit package from the International Monetary Fund to revive its flagging fortunes. But the package comes with strings and diplomats say it is by no means certain Mr. Mugabe will accept the reform conditions that are crucial to the deal.

Professor Makumbe of the University of Zimbabwe says he does not see how the government can halt what he characterizes as an accelerating slide downwards.

“The possibility of a military coup is not entirely remote. I would argue that there is such growing disenchantment with the status quo that it would not surprise me that there are some secret meetings among the military, the police and even among politicians discussing 'what is the way forward, how do we rescue this situation?'”

Diplomats dismiss the notion of possible coup. They do not believe there is anyone now in the government or the ruling ZANU PF party who has the courage to confront Mr. Mugabe.

But in the long term, these sources believe the discontent in the country could promote the birth of serious new political parties in what has been essentially a one-party state.

What happens in the short term is another matter. The immediate plight of average Zimbabweans reeling from price hikes on basic commodities, tax increases, and a sharp depreciation in the value of the country's currency is evident in the story told by one working woman. She spoke in the sprawling suburb of Chitungwiza outside Harare on condition of anonymity.

A mother of three, her husband has been out of work for five years. She is also caring for the children of a sick relative. She says it is a daily struggle to feed everyone in the extended family on her limited income. When it comes time to pay the monthly rent on their house, she says they cannot afford to buy food. She says bluntly, 'it can't go on like this much longer.'