UNITA General Dembo’s Secret Trip to South Africa

One of the mysteries in a controversial United Nations report on Angola sanctions violations released in March 2000 involved a visit to South Africa in 1999 by a top leader of the UNITA rebel movement. I asked government officials and Angola experts in South Africa about the previously undisclosed trip.

The UN report contains what can only be described as a startling admission from the South African government. A top Angolan rebel official -- UNITA Vice President, General Antonio Dembo -- visited South Africa last year. This was at a time when international sanctions technically barred senior members of the rebel group from travelling abroad.

The UN report says South Africa has told the sanctions committee that General Dembo was not on official business and that he was not a formal guest of the government.

But there has so far been no South African explanation as to why he was allowed into the country.

The UN report itself links the visit, in August of last year, to the alleged purchase of anti-aircraft weapons -- a transaction that South African officials deny and which the report itself admits was never completed.

But Angola analysts believe the Dembo trip may have been part of a secret South African effort to revive peace talks between the rebels and the government in Luanda.

No one in the South African government -- from the president's office, to the Department of Foreign Affairs, to the National Intelligence Agency -- has so far been willing to discuss the visit or claims by senior UNITA officials, cited in the UN report, that they were received by South African officials after the imposition of sanctions prohibiting such contacts.

Similarly, there has been no official comment on the claim in the UN report that South African nationals with what are termed "political connections" were received by the rebels themselves last year in UNITA-held territory in Angola. However analysts say such contacts would not be inconsistent with South Africa's belief that the Angolan conflict cannot be solved militarily or through the imposition of sanctions, but rather only through the resumption of a peaceful dialogue between the rebels and the Luanda government.

Angolan authorities have soundly criticized South Africa for promoting this view. They are pressing for UNITA's military defeat in what they have dubbed the final war for peace. However, top figures in Angola's ruling party, the MPLA or Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, have visited South Africa repeatedly during the past year to confer with senior government and African National Congress party officials. Analysts now believe these talks were linked to a secret South African mediating effort.

Commentators are calling on South African authorities to bring the initiative, if it exists, out of the closet. Peter Fabricius, foreign editor of the Johannesburg Star newspaper, says in a column that as long as such diplomacy remains clandestine, it will, in his words, "breed the kind of suspicion" that can be read between the lines of the UN report. He says continued secrecy also runs the risk of creating what he terms a "lingering association" between South African officials and the leaders of other African countries accused in the UN document of profiting from contacts with UNITA.

South Africa Concerned About Angola Despite UNITA Setbacks; Mandela Warns Savimbi Is Expert Guerrilla Fighter

In early February 2000, South Africa expressed growing concern about the threat posed to regional stability by the ongoing conflict in Angola. This concern emerged despite statements by Angolan authorities that their forces were making rapid headway against the UNITA rebel movement led by Jonas Savimbi. In this piece, I explained the thinking behind South Africa’s concerns.

Angola's state-run news agency this week quotes Defense Minister Kundi Paihama as hailing the current offensive against UNITA by the country's armed forces --- an offensive he notes has already resulted in the recapture of long-time rebel strongholds.

As Mr. Paihama sees it, such military developments are yielding what he calls positive results inside Angola, and will ultimately bring about benefits for the entire Southern Africa region.

But South African leaders appear to be less than reassured by such comments and seem unconvinced that Angola's armed forces have gained the upper hand in the war.

Former South African President Nelson Mandela says he is deeply worried that UNITA leader Savimbi seems to have abandoned some of his long-time positions without putting up much resistance.

“Now that is a disturbing sign because it seems that UNITA has got a particular tactic and Savimbi is an accomplished, a seasoned guerrilla fighter.”

Mr. Mandela believes UNITA is fully capable of waging a prolonged guerrilla war.

“There are vast tracts of areas in Angola where it is just thick forest, where no conventional warfare can be conducted and Savimbi is an expert at that.”

Top South African officials share Mr. Mandela's fears. Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma told reporters this week there can be no military solution to the Angolan conflict. Like Mr. Mandela, she acknowledges UNITA's failure to cooperate with past peace efforts is an obstacle. Despite the Angolan government's opposition to any further negotiations with Mr. Savimbi, she believes there will eventually have to be more talks.

“There will have to be, at some stage, a discussion among Angolans, between Angolans, to find a lasting political solution.”

In the meantime, Mrs. Dlamini-Zuma and South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa - Lekota are deeply worried about the Angolan conflict spilling over the border into neighboring Namibia, and the potential that other countries such as Zambia may also be dragged into the war.

Mr. Lekota says the fighting, in his words, is too close to our doorstep for comfort. Because of its concerns, South Africa will soon propose the Southern African Development Community, SADC, set up a permanent early-warning system to detect and control potential security problems in the region before they escalate. Mr. Lekota says the system should include, what he terms - mechanisms of intervention.

So far there has been no word of reaction to this idea from Angola or other countries. But Mr. Lekota says SADC cannot sit back when there is a crisis in the region.

South Africa's sense of urgency appears to be reflected in the sudden announcement that President Thabo Mbeki has cancelled plans to attend the opening of a museum honoring former President Mandela. He will instead travel to Zimbabwe for talks on regional issues with President Robert Mugabe, the head of an existing security committee within the SADC group.

Mr. Mbeki's spokesman says there is nothing unusual about the change in plans.

But the talks will give the two an opportunity to discuss not only the Angolan crisis but also the conflict - equally disturbing to South Africa - in Congo-Kinshasa. Angola and Zimbabwe, along with Namibia, have sent troops to the Congo to support President Laurent Kabila in his war against rebels backed by Rwanda and Uganda.

In a further sign of diplomatic activity, South Africa has disclosed Defense Secretary William Cohen will arrive shortly for talks with Mr. Mbeki and other senior officials. Officials say regional security issues will be on the agenda.

Who Shot Down the UN Planes?

Two United Nations chartered aircraft crashed in Angola on 26 December 1998 and 2 January 1999. The UN asserted they were shot down by the UNITA rebels, and called it “an outrageous crime apparently intended to intimidate the United Nations and force it to curtail its operations.” A total of 15 passengers and eight crew members were killed. UNITA denied any responsibility for the incidents, which led the United Nations to limit its air operations in Angola. However, late in January 2000, doubts were raised about the credibility of testimony to the UN Security Council accusing UNITA of downing the two aircraft.

South African military affairs expert Jakkie Potgieter is blunt in his assessment of the video-taped testimony of UNITA defectors that was presented to the Security Council last week. Mr. Potgieter says their widely-publicized claims about the downing of two UN chartered aircraft are clearly a fabrication.

The chairman of the UN ANGOLA Sanctions Committee, Canadian Robert Fowler, interviewed the defectors in Angola. They say the two UN planes were brought down by shoulder-launched surface-to-air-missiles at the personal orders of UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi.

All 23 people on the two chartered cargo planes died in the separate incidents in Angola's Central Highland on December 26th, 1998 and January 2nd, 1999.

But Mr. Potgieter, an analyst on Angolan affairs and regional security issues at South Africa's respected Institute for Security Studies, says one of the aircraft was struck at an altitude (45-hundred meters) far beyond the capability of any weapons known to be in the rebels' arsenal.

He also says there are inconsistencies in the actual videotaped statements of the defectors, including conflicting references to the planes being downed by shoulder-fired missiles and by anti-aircraft guns. That inconsistency appears even in printed excerpts of the defectors' statements issued by the United Nations. At one point in these excerpts, a former rebel colonel (identified as Jose Antonio Gille) refers to both "missiles" and "the gun", prompting Ambassador Fowler to ask for clarification. The defector's answer, according to the UN transcript, is "It was portable" -- to which is appended a translator's note saying this means, "it was not a gun," but a shoulder-fired missile.

Mr. Potgieter says there are large, vehicle-mounted anti-aircraft missiles that could have brought down the UN plane – even at an altitude beyond the range of shoulder-launched weapons and conventional anti-aircraft guns.

But he says UNITA is not believed to have any such vehicle-mounted systems. The analyst says Angolan government armed forces do have this type of longer-range missile.

UNITA has denied any responsibility for the downing of the UN planes. In an interview last week, rebel foreign secretary Alcides Sakala blamed the Angolan government.

Mr. Sakala charged the downing of the aircraft was in support of a successful effort by President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos to force UN peacekeepers out of the country. He also charged the defectors were forced to say what their Angolan government captors wanted them to say.

Ambassador Fowler told reporters last week that there had been no indications that the former UNITA fighters had been coerced. In response to questions about the credibility of the defectors, Mr. Fowler said members of his sanctions panel who accompanied him to Angola had been able to corroborate their testimony.

But it is not clear whether this included the former rebels' statements about the downed UN planes. The Canadian ambassador said dealing with those incidents was not formally within his mandate -- even though he recorded their comments on the matter.

Analysts say they are shocked Ambassador Fowler does not appear to have questioned the defectors' testimony before presenting it to the Security Council and releasing it to the public. They say it is still possible that UNITA was the true culprit in the downing of the planes, but not in the way described by the former rebels. The analysts say this calls into question the credibility of other claims presented by Mr. Fowler to the United Nations. Among other statements, the Canadian envoy said international sanctions against UNITA are working and could bring the long-running civil war in Angola to an early end.

Angolan Troops Seize Longtime UNITA HQ Near Namibia

The last months of 1999 saw repeated blows to the fortunes of UNITA. The rebels’ longtime strongholds of Andulo and Bailundo in the Central Highlands of Angola fell to government forces in October. Then in late December, Angolan government troops captured Jamba, another longtime UNITA stronghold, this one in the southeast of the war-torn country.

Angola's state-run news agency reports government troops drove UNITA forces from the southeastern rebel stronghold of Jamba on Christmas Day.

The agency gives no details on the assault and makes no mention of casualties on either side. But it says 200 rebels surrendered. It also says government authorities now have full control over the border between Angola and Namibia.

There has been no independent confirmation of the government report nor any comment from UNITA.

However in a statement issued last week, the rebel movement asserted that UNITA, in its words, has learned the art of survival "under the most adverse conditions." The statement said the rebels, quoting again, "will overcome the current onslaught."

Jamba was UNITA's headquarters for some 15 years following Angola's 1975 independence from Portugal. The rebels, under Jonas Savimbi, later established new strongholds in the country's Central Highlands. They were driven from those locations in October of this past year in a massive government offensive designed to punish UNITA for failing to live up to the terms of a 1994 peace agreement.

The present whereabouts of the rebel leadership is not known.

Angola Scoop: Ireland Shuts Down UNITA’s Kwacha Website

On November 10th, 1999, authorities in Ireland appeared to have suspended one of the last means of communication used by Angola's UNITA rebel movement.

Since the loss of its strongholds in Angola's Central Highlands, UNITA leaders have made only sporadic contact with the outside world. Their last message -- claiming all was well despite recent military setbacks -- appeared on the rebel movement's Internet web-site, Kwacha-dot-com, on October 28th.

But since that message appeared, no further communiques have been posted on the web-site known to be based in Ireland.

The end of the messages is apparently the result of a stern warning delivered by Irish authorities to Leon Dias, the Dublin-based administrator of the site. He issued the last rebel statement on behalf of what was termed "the UNITA Office, Irish Republic."

Although Mr. Dias is not identified, a new statement from Ireland's Foreign Ministry says authorities made contact with "the individual" who disseminated the October 28th message.

They informed him Ireland would not condone or accept the presence of a formal office of the rebel movement. They also stressed Ireland's commitment to the full implementation of UN sanctions against UNITA.

Existing UN sanctions against the rebel movement include the required closure of all UNITA offices. UN officials have said that while there are no specific sanctions in place that would require the closure of UNITA's Internet site, they believe its continued existence violates the spirit of current measures against the rebels. They have described the website as a cause for concern.

Irish authorities sidestepped a question about whether officials of the UN Angola sanctions committee had formally asked that the UNITA web-site be closed. The Irish Foreign Ministry statement says only that Ireland's full commitment to the implementation of all UN sanctions is known to the chairman of the Angola Sanctions Committee.

There has been increased attention on the enforcement of sanctions against UNITA since fighting in Angola's civil war erupted again late last year.

Angolan government authorities blame the rebels for the resumption of the fighting. They accuse UNITA of failing to live up to its commitments under a 1994 peace agreement that called for the complete demilitarization of the rebel movement.

Note: Although the Kwacha site became inactive following these reports, nearly two years later, a letter was released dated 12 October 2001 from the Chairman of the UN Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 864 (1993) concerning the situation in Angola and sent to the President of the Security Council. Excerpts pertaining to the Ireland connection are presented here. They state, without elaboration, that the Irish government had not succeeded in closing the site: (excerpts)

60. Another important UNITA figure is Leon Dias in Ireland. His activities are also being closely followed by the Mechanism because he is considered to be instrumental for UNITA satellite and Internet communications.

68. Web sites cannot operate without “web hosts”. A “web host” is essentially the individual responsible for running and maintaining the site. Kwacha.org is administered by Colm Croasdell. Kwacha.com is administered by Leon Dias. Both sites operate from Ireland. Some of the email addresses of Joffre Justino and a number of other important UNITA officials, including one belonging to Jonas Savimbi, are administered from companies operating in Portugal. Although these facts have been brought to the attention of the Irish and Portuguese authorities, neither Government has succeeded in closing the sites.

241. Leon Dias (Ireland) is based in Dublin, and has been identified as extremely important to UNITA as a supplier of satellite and other communication capability such as Internet. The search conducted on Dias has established that he does not have an obvious source of income and that the company listed as his employer is dissolved, yet he has a relatively affluent life style. The search has also established that Leon Dias is the registered owner of the residential property he is currently
occupying in Dublin. To develop an accurate financial profile, the Mechanism has asked the Irish authorities to supply information on Leon Dias’ financial and tax affairs.

The full document can be viewed at:
http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/committees/Angola/966e.pdf

Angola Scoop: The Irish Probe Into UNITA’s Office Continues

On November 4th, 1999, authorities in Dublin said they were continuing their investigation into the apparent presence in Ireland of an office operated by Angola's UNITA rebel movement.

A spokeswoman for Ireland's Foreign Affairs Ministry will give no details on the nature of the probe launched by authorities after a message appeared last week on UNITA's internet website from what was described as the "UNITA Office, Irish Republic."

However, the text of that message was changed after I reported Irish authorities had said the existence of such a rebel office would be in violation of United Nations sanctions.

It now says the message was issued by "The UNITA External Mission" and the reference to a rebel office in Ireland has been dropped.

The message, dated October 28th (1999), was addressed to friends and supporters of the UNITA movement. It said that despite recent military setbacks, rebel forces in Angola remained intact. It also stated that UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi is well and in good health.

The UNITA website is one of the rebel group's last remaining means of communications. The site, known as Kwacha-dot-com, is based in Ireland.

Irish officials will not say whether they intend to close down the site.

However a spokesman for the UN Angola Sanctions Committee has called the rebels' internet presence a cause for concern.

The United Nations has imposed a variety of sanctions against UNITA to punish it for failing to comply with the provisions of a 1994 peace agreement. Under that accord, the rebel movement was to have demilitarized.

Because of the rebel non-compliance, the Angolan government broke off peace talks with UNITA last year. In recent weeks, government troops have seized UNITA's traditional strongholds in the country's Central Highlands and have launched an extensive manhunt for rebel leader Savimbi.

Angola Scoop: Ireland Launches Investigation Into UNITA Office

Days later, on November 1st, 1999, the Irish government, responding to my inquiries, said it was launching an immediate inquiry into the presence in Ireland of an office operated by Angola's UNITA rebel movement, apparently in violation of United Nations sanctions.

In a statement, the Irish government says it does not recognize, condone or accept the presence of a UNITA office or representative in Ireland. It says authorities in Dublin are aware of a message purportedly issued by just such a rebel office and are launching an immediate inquiry.

The message in question appeared last week on UNITA's internet website, a site based in Ireland and known as Kwacha-dot-com. It reassured rebel supporters that the movement and its leaders, including Jonas Savimbi, are well despite recent military setbacks.

The administrator of the website, Leon Dias, told me in a telephone interview from Dublin that he is in almost daily contact with rebel leaders in Angola.

Mr. Dias did not appear to be concerned that he might run afoul of Irish authorities by calling his operation "The UNITA Office" in Ireland. He said UNITA's presence in Ireland is "well-known." He also said that the Angolan rebel group, in his words, "has friends here, politicians who have declared it is unfair to shut the mouths of people who want to put out the word of UNITA."

However, the Irish government statement says the existence of a UNITA office in Ireland would be in violation of United Nations sanctions imposed against the rebel group two years ago. It says Ireland is committed to implementation of all such sanctions.

It is not clear whether the actions Irish authorities might take would include the closure of UNITA's internet website. At the moment, there are no specific telecommunications measures in force that might compel officials in Dublin to shut down Kwacha-dot-com.

However, officials of the special UN Angola sanctions committee say it is possible the panel will attempt to close it.

David Angel, assistant to Angola sanctions committee chairman Robert Fowler, says the existence of the website is what he terms a "cause for concern." He says it appears to violate the "spirit" of existing sanctions against UNITA.

The Security Council has imposed an array of punitive measures against the rebel movement for its failure to comply with provisions of a 1994 UN brokered peace agreement. Rebel non-compliance led Angolan government authorities to break off further talks with UNITA last year and to launch a military offensive aimed at wiping out the guerrilla movement.

Angola Scoop: UNITA’s Website Pinpointed in Ireland (Ireland???)

Stunned by battlefield setbacks, its leaders virtually incommunicado, the voice of Angola's UNITA rebel movement now appears to be emanating from an office in Ireland - an office whose existence may contravene United Nations sanctions. My exclusive report came in late October 1999.

After days of inactivity, a new message went up this week on UNITA's Internet website, a site known as Kwacha-dot-com.

It acknowledged that recent military developments in Angola may have caused "confusion and concern" among friends and supporters of the rebel group. But it said they should be reassured that UNITA had the "strength, firmness and determination" to resist the offensive being carried out by Angolan government troops.

It also said UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi was well and in good health - a denial of reports circulating in the Angolan capital, Luanda, that Mr. Savimbi may have been killed or seriously wounded in the recent government attacks that have forced the rebels from their strongholds at Andulo and Bailundo in Angola's Central Highlands.

The UNITA message was issued by what was termed "The UNITA Office, Irish Republic." The rebels' Kwacha-dot-com website is also based in Ireland. Its administrative contact is Leon Dias, who said in a telephone interview that he is in direct contact almost daily with UNITA leaders still in Angola.

Mr. Dias did not appear to be concerned that by calling his operation "The UNITA Office," he might run afoul of Irish authorities.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1127 of two years ago called on member states to undertake, quoting now, "the immediate and complete closure of all UNITA offices in their territories" - one of several measures ordered to punish the rebels for failing to implement provisions of Angola's 1994 peace agreement.

Mr. Dias, who said he is an Irish citizen, added that UNITA's presence in Ireland was "well-known," and that he was "not in hiding but operating openly." He went on to assert that UNITA - in his words -- "has friends here, politicians who have declared it is unfair to shut the mouths of people who want to put out the word of UNITA."

I contacted the Irish Foreign Ministry in Dublin to ask whether authorities were aware of a UNITA presence in their country. A press officer promised to look into the matter.

It is unclear whether the existence of UNITA's Irish-based computer website would in itself violate any current UN sanctions. UN officials have been studying possible telecommunications sanctions against the rebels but have announced no decisions.

Diamonds Remain Key UNITA Asset Despite 1999 De Beers Move

A senior official of Angola's UNITA movement says the decision by South Africa's De Beers firm to stop buying Angolan diamonds will not harm the rebels. More on an October 1999 conversation with UNITA’s Alcides Sakala.

UNITA's sales of diamonds mined from territory under its control have brought the rebel group millions of dollars in income and financed its purchases of arms, ammunition and other military supplies.

But UNITA Foreign Secretary Alcides Sakala rejects suggestions that the Angolan diamond embargo announced by the influential De Beers firm, which controls most of the world's diamond sales will have a serious impact on the rebels' ability to fight on.

“We have never sold diamonds to De Beers, in the past, recently and now. So I believe that's more symbolic. The point I'd like to stress is the following: whoever wants to buy diamonds is welcome to our free land, so I don't see how De Beers can really solve this problem.”

Speaking by satellite telephone from an undisclosed location inside Angola, Mr. Sakala also says UNITA is not suffering any supply problems as a result of international sanctions against the rebels or the latest fighting in the country -- fighting which he blames on Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos.

“I think that's not really a problem right now. We have enough ammunition to defend ourselves from the aggression of Eduardo Dos Santos.”

Mr. Sakala claims government ground troops involved in the latest offensive against rebel positions are abandoning large quantities of arms, which UNITA is in turn using against them. Still, Mr. Sakala concedes that attacks by government aircraft are taking a heavy toll.

“When they attack with their jet fighters, they are using napalm, cluster bombs, fuel-air explosives and phosphorous. They are hitting entire villages. So people are dying today.”

But the senior UNITA official says rebel forces have no plans to go on the offensive in response. He says the rebels' current strategy is one of what he calls active defense -- a strategy he says is aimed at destroying the capacity of government armed forces to launch further attacks.

Mr. Sakala also says the rebels remain interested in national reconciliation and dialogue. But he says peace depends on the willingness of President Dos Santos to reject what Mr. Sakala contends is the government's present policy of "exclusion, intolerance, intransigence and war."

Fighting resumed in Angola late last year after the government and the United Nations accused UNITA of failing to live up to its commitments under the country's 1994 peace agreement to demilitarize and hand over territory under rebel control. However, government military offensives aimed at wiping out the rebel leadership and seizing UNITA strongholds appear so far to have been unsuccessful.

The Disinformation War Escalates: Biowarfare and Kidnapping Targeting UNITA?

In November 1999 came shocking news from Angola: authorities there were allegedly considering the use of biological agents against fugitive UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi. But as I quickly learned, regional analysts suspected the purported secret plan was just part of an ongoing Angolan misinformation effort.

With accurate information about the fighting in Angola virtually impossible to obtain, foreign and domestic observers of the civil war are being inundated with statements and documents related to the civil war that cannot be independently confirmed.

Perhaps the most shocking piece of such unconfirmed information has just emerged. It is a purported secret document suggesting the Angolan military might use air-dropped biological agents such as smallpox against fugitive UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi once his hiding place has been pinpointed.

The document, now circulating among Western diplomats, is said to be from the Operational Command of Angola's Secret Services.

But analysts familiar with the plan say they do not believe it represents a genuine military option. Instead, they say it appears to be part of a continuing government misinformation campaign designed to instill fear among UNITA troops and supporters inside Angola.

It is one of several purportedly secret Angolan documents now in Western hands. Among the others is an alleged authorization to government troops to cross into Zambia in hot pursuit of rebel leader Savimbi.

Yet another is an order to Angolan embassies in Europe and Africa sanctioning the abduction of senior UNITA representatives.

A UNITA official in Brussels recently claimed the abduction plan was already being implemented. He pointed to what he described as the kidnapping of a son of rebel leader Savimbi from Togo to Luanda. The son went before journalists in the Angolan capital and denounced his father.

But UNITA claims the youth's accusations were "lies" forced on him by Angolan authorities.

The war in Angola intensified in September when government troops launched their latest offensive against the rebels. Since then, UNITA has been driven out of its traditional strongholds in the country's Central Highlands.

Angola's army chief of staff said this week soldiers are tracking rebel leader Savimbi and suggested his death or capture could be imminent.

Coming Up Sunday and Later Next Week

On Sunday I'll post a report on a biowarfare threat in Angola --- and then, later in the week, my original multi-part expose on UNITA's Irish communications connection, which eventually drew the attention of the Irish government and the UN Angola Sanctions committee.

UNITA Claims Angolan Government Military Offensive Has Failed

In September 1999, Angolan government forces were on the move against UNITA rebels. But by October that year, a senior rebel leader, UNITA's foreign secretary, Alcides Sakala, said the government offensive, aimed at seizing key rebel strongholds, had failed.

Mr. Sakala says UNITA remains firmly in control of all the territory it held before the start of the latest government offensive last month.

Speaking from an undisclosed location inside Angola, he says in a telephone interview that the only serious fighting now underway is taking place on the outskirts of the rebel stronghold of Bailundo in the country's Central Highlands region.

But he says government troops there are facing serious difficulties. He contends their supply routes have been cut and they have been unable to evacuate their wounded.

Mr. Sakala says he believes the government offensive ordered by President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos has collapsed.

“The intention of (Angolan President Jose) Eduardo Dos Santos was to conquer our free land in seven days. I think they have failed completely, which means that the offensive has lost momentum and now we just have fighting on the vicinity of Bailundo.”

Government officials in the Angolan capital, Luanda, have so far given no details about the offensive or commented on the rebel claims.

Mr. Sakala vehemently denies reports that UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi has written President Dos Santos asking for a cease-fire and offering to abandon rebel strongholds in the Central Highlands. He describes the purported letter as a government propaganda trick aimed at bolstering the flagging morale of Angolan troops.

“The morale of the government army is very low throughout the country and I believe the purpose was that. Dr. Savimbi has not written any letters to Eduardo Dos Santos; we don't need to write letters to Eduardo Dos Santos. I think it was a maneuver of the Luanda government.”

Angola's civil war resumed late last year after the Dos Santos government accused UNITA of failing to live up to its demilitarization commitments under a UN-backed 1994 peace agreement. UNITA has since offered to resume peace talks. But the government has repeatedly rejected the rebel overtures.

The UN peacekeeping mission in Angola was shut down earlier this year.

Human Rights Watch Slams the UN Peacekeeping Mission in Angola

In mid September 1999, the independent monitoring group, Human Rights Watch, issued a new report sharply critical of the failed UN peacekeeping mission in Angola.

Human Rights Watch accuses the United Nations of following what it calls a policy of “see no evil, hear no evil” in Angola --- a policy that it says fueled the resumption of civil war in the country late last year. It says unless UN officials learn from what the report calls its fatal mistakes, any new peacekeeping mission in Angola will be at risk, as will similar missions in other African countries.

In a newly-released 205-page report, Human Rights Watch says the renewed conflict in Angola and accompanying human-rights abuses were triggered by new arms flows that occurred despite a UN arms embargo against the main rebel group, UNITA.

It says that not only was the United Nations ineffective in dealing with UNITA's sanctions-busting, UN officials were ineffective in verifying Angola's 1994 peace agreement -- even though the UN mission in the country was the largest in the world.

The report accuses both UNITA and the Angolan Government of committing widespread human-rights abuses. It says the abuses have included indiscriminate killings, torture and abductions as well as forced recruitment into the military.

The Human Rights Watch report notes the renewed fighting in Angola has resulted in a growing humanitarian crisis. It calls for both sides in the war to permit the establishment of neutral humanitarian corridors to allow relief supplies to reach civilians in need.

Eds: This important HRW report is still on the web at http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/angola/

Savimbi Calls It a Big Lie But UNITA Refugees Say People In Areas Under Rebel Control Are Starving

After my August 1999 visit to Malange, I left Angola and traveled immediately to Zambia to follow up on credible reports that had surfaced of widespread starvation and disease in the vast areas of war-torn Angola controlled by rebels of the UNITA movement. No one had been reporting on what was happening in rebel-held territory so any glimpse into life there was something to be seized:

UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi says reports of a humanitarian crisis in Angola are a "big lie."

But aid workers, foreign journalists, and other independent observers say that as a result of renewed fighting in the country, scores of Angolans have already starved to death and many more have been dangerously weakened by malnutrition and other diseases.

These independent reports all stem from conditions witnessed exclusively in government-held portions of war-torn Angola, an area estimated to be just about 30 percent of the country.

Now, however, credible reports have emerged of similar suffering in the much larger, 70 percent of Angola controlled by the rebels.

Ngande Mwanajiti is the Executive Director of AFRONET, the Inter-African Network for Human Rights and Development. His Lusaka-based independent monitoring group has been interviewing the steady flow of refugees arriving in Zambia this year from UNITA-held territory.

“The testimonies we heard are shocking to say the least.”

In an interview in Lusaka, Mr. Mwanajiti says the refugees report widespread starvation. He says they also complain about the lack of even basic medical care.

“Children do not have access to vaccinations and therefore you are talking about not preventing preventable diseases and we have learned and heard of grinding poverty as a result of the fact that although UNITA controls this huge territory, they have absolutely no responsibility over the inhabitants of the territory.”

Officials of the United Nations refugee agency in Lusaka confirm that Angolans fleeing into Zambia from rebel-held areas are reporting cases of starvation as well as serious health problems.

There are around 150 thousand Angolan refugees now in Zambia. About two thousand have arrived since fighting resumed late last year and more are expected as conditions continue to deteriorate.

Relief workers say they are concerned about the situation in UNITA-held territory. But they say that for the moment, they have no access to those areas for carrying out their humanitarian assistance programs.

The UN Security Council this week said the humanitarian situation in Angola was deteriorating. The Council specifically called on UNITA to provide relief agencies with access to the millions of Angolans it said are living in desperate conditions.

The Final War For Peace In Angola Comes At A Price

Hundreds of thousands of Angolans displaced by the civil war are facing possible death from starvation amid growing food shortages. International relief groups are scrambling to provide them with emergency aid. But with donations lagging, efforts are underway to help the displaced grow their own crops. One such effort is under way on the outskirts of the besieged Angolan provincial capital of Malange, as I reported in August 1999.

The old man stands carefully atop the poles of his crude frame shelter, chattering as he makes a roof by spreading bundles of dried grass being tossed to him by a friend.

He seems happy to be out of the grim city of Malange just 10 kilometers away - a place where people are dying daily, victims of hunger or of shelling duels between Angolan government troops and rebels of the UNITA movement.

Aid organizations like the United Nations World Food Program are making almost desperate efforts to brave the dangerous roads and the fickle skies around Malange to deliver relief supplies to the more than 200-thousand people who are trapped there.

But the pipeline is a fragile one and the amount of food brought in so far is not enough to guarantee the city's survival for long.

Which is why relief agencies have just started trying to get some of these victims of one of Africa's forgotten wars out of the city and into fields set aside by Angolan authorities for resettlement.

Francesco Strippoli, the WFP director in Angola, says such an effort, perilous as it may seem given the continued fighting, is essential to break the cycle of dependency the displaced are now trapped in.

“Better to grow something than to grow nothing and waiting for the truck to arrive and deliver the food. I think this is important for the dignity of the people. They need to grow whatever they can and try to live, to the extent possible, a normal life.”

On a recent morning, thousands of Malange's displaced were up at dawn, pouring out along the main road heading west from of the battle-scarred city, carrying building materials, food and other possessions to the fields now open to them for planting.

Many have already thrown up primitive huts to live in and are beginning to till the soil of their tiny plots. Up to now, most have survived on limited handouts of food aid or from money earned by selling firewood, often gathered at great risk beyond the mine fields around Malange.

But their problems are far from over. These newly resettled displaced had to abandon most of what they owned when they fled into Malange. Now they wonder about the tools and seeds they have been promised by relief organizations. They also wonder if they will have enough food aid to keep them alive until the crops they hope to plant are harvested - something that won't happen until next year.

Jean-Luc Tonglet is the U-N Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator in Malange.

“In Malange, in fact, people are by essence farmers. So once the first drops of water (rain) will fall, you will see everybody in the region desperately trying to cultivate pieces of land. So we have absolutely (to) do something to provide to the displaced people what is sufficient for them in order to cultivate.”

Because of the fighting and the weak donor response so far to Angola's critical food aid needs, it is far from certain whether these Angolans will be able to live long enough to bring in a harvest. Ask any of them and they will say they are tired of the war that has ravaged their country for more than two decades.

But a negotiated end to the fighting is still nowhere in sight. UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi has offered to reopen a peace dialogue with the government. But President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos has said there is nothing more to discuss with the rebels. He has vowed to press on with what the government calls "the final war for peace."

Starving in Malange: the Worst Place in the World to be a Child?

In August 1999, the humanitarian situation in Angola had deteriorated dramatically. Hundreds of thousands of Angolans displaced by civil war were threatened not only by violent death, but also by starvation. As noted in the last post, I went to the besieged provincial capital of Malange, where an estimated one-thousand people had been killed by shelling in 1999 and where up to 10-people were dying daily from hunger.

The dull thud of artillery fire in the distance is drowned out by the cries of malnourished children.

But these children, about 300 of them packed into a shabby concrete building in the center of Malange, are the lucky ones -- at least they are getting emergency food and medical attention from international relief groups.

Aid workers at the facility, Angolan and foreign alike, often prompt the children to sing for visitors, an almost surreal experience.

But it is meant to be a spirit-building exercise to help them pass the time between feedings of high-energy porridge and biscuits. Most of the children take part, clutching their plastic plates and tin spoons.

But others lay listlessly, too weak to even lift their heads. Some of the sickest are mere stick figures, near death when they arrived at the center. Others show the grotesque swelling associated with some types of malnutrition. Many have faces so drawn and gaunt they look like old men and women.

Children like these who reach one of the feeding centers scattered around Malange have a good chance of surviving. But the city's Roman Catholic Bishop, Luis Maria Perez de Onraita, estimates an average of 10 people have been starving to death every day in recent months.

That is because Malange has been virtually cut off by fighting between Angolan government troops and forces of the UNITA rebel movement, making aid deliveries by air or road an uncertain and risky business.

The Bishop appeals to the world to come to the aid of Malange and Angola's other besieged provincial capitals. He says that what he calls the "bomb of hunger" is now claiming even more lives than the artillery shells that still target the city.

Responding to such appeals, the United Nations World Food Program recently managed to deliver a huge shipment of food aid to Malange. But officials concede it is still far too little to ensure the continued survival of the more than 200-thousand people packed in and around the battle-scarred city.

Those who could, have fled to Angola's capital, Luanda, about 400-kilometers to the west. But others arrive from rural areas daily, forced from their farms by fighting, often threading their way through minefields in hopes of reaching safety.

At one dilapidated, abandoned factory building on the outskirts of Malange, aid workers find a group of new arrivals. They include three visibly malnourished orphaned children, aged two, three, and six, who sit, silently, staring intently at a pot containing a handful of corn cooking over a tiny fire.

Francesco Strippoli is the WFP's director in Angola. He calls the situation "fragile" and says if the current food aid pipeline is cut, there will be a catastrophe. He knows the pain of the suffering children of Malange, having held a starving boy in his arms during a visit to the city.

“He (the child) was so light that I could not believe he was a two year (old) child. He was not heavier than four, five kilos. The only emotion I have is you can never get used to this picture. The emotions come violently in your heart, and you cry.”

This may well be the worst place in the world to be a child. Infant mortality rates are staggering. Three out of every 10 children born in Angola will not survive to their fifth birthdays. And the numbers are increasing.

Humanitarian groups say more aid is urgently needed to ease the misery and suffering brought on by a more than two-decade old conflict often labeled "Africa's forgotten war."
But the Angolan government, fearing questions about how it spends its plentiful oil and diamond revenues, blocked an effort by United Nations agencies to stage a public Security Council meeting this week to highlight the country's plight.

As for the rebel UNITA movement, its leader, Jonas Savimbi, said in a recent interview that reports of a humanitarian crisis in Angola were - in his words - "a big lie."

Back to Angola: A Reporter In Trouble

In August 1999 I returned to Angola and headed out into the provinces. My first stop was Malange where a reporter for the Voice of America's special Portuguese-language program for Angola said he feared for his life after authorities seized him and threatened him with prosecution in connection with a dispatch he filed. The VOA effort in Angola was truly incredible --- and had a huge impact. Virtually everyone in the country, from government officials to rebels to civilians, listened. And that put the program's reporters in danger everytime they reported on matters those in power did not want to hear. My 1999 report on the plight of Isaias Soares from the besieged Angolan city of Malange:

Mr. Soares says he was picked up by police in Malange and told he would face prosecution over a report he filed this week. That report quoted a United Nations aid worker in the besieged city some 400 kilometers east of the Angolan capital Luanda as saying some government security forces have seized relief supplies from civilians in the Malange area.

The reporter for VOA's Portuguese-language service program for Angola says that while in custody he was not allowed to make any statement to defend himself. He says he was released to await possible trial but expresses fear that his life is now in danger. He is appealing for protection for himself and for his family.

UN officials in Malange have already urged local authorities not to take any action against the reporter. Authorities in Luanda were also urged by the VOA representatives in the capital to intervene to ensure Mr. Soares' safety.

More than 100-thousand Angolans in the Malange area are dependent on relief supplies for their survival following months of often heavy fighting that have virtually cut off the city. One-third of the city's population is suffering from malnutrition. Aid workers say most of the relief supplies that have reached the city are being distributed to civilians without incident.

However they say it is no secret that police and soldiers have stolen some of the food aid for their own use.

Sporadic exchanges of artillery fire were heard outside of Malange throughout the day on Thursday.

Reports reaching Luanda said another besieged city, Cuito, further to the south, also came under heavy shelling.

The fighting follows the Angolan government's rejection of an offer by UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi to reopen a peace dialogue. Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos said this week there is nothing more to negotiate with the rebels following their failure to abide by demilitarization commitments in a 1994 United Nations brokered peace agreement.

Kenya: “The War Talk That Has Everyone Stunned"

The latest signs of political repression in Kenya and frequent government warnings of purported guerrilla threats, coupled with a barrage of harsh verbal attacks on the international community, have raised questions about where Kenya is heading. One question is the timing of what one leading independent newspaper has called “the war talk that has everyone stunned." (Just remember, this was written in June 1995, not January 2008).

Many Kenyan and foreign observers are puzzled about the timing of the latest political turmoil in Kenya. It comes as the government of President Daniel Arap Moi is preparing for talks with its major western aid donors in Paris in late July (1995).

Under normal circumstances, those donors should be pleased with what has been happening in Kenya from an economic standpoint.

In a speech marking a national holiday (Madaraka Day) this week, President Moi hailed his country's recent economic achievements, including substantial reductions in the rate of inflation and the lowering of interest rates.

The country's latest growth figures are described by diplomatic sources as solid and impressive. These sources credit the government for taking important and tough liberalization measures sought by donor countries, including the removal of most currency, import and price controls. Authorities have, in addition, tightened up on government spending, trimmed the civil service and moved to improve tax collections.

Diplomats say the donors still have some economic concerns, chiefly in the realm of financial corruption.

But essentially the coming Paris meeting was called by donors who are worried about the course of political events in the country. They are so worried that Germany, for example, has already scaled back its financial assistance to Kenya. Denmark is reportedly poised to do the same. Others have frozen further aid disbursements.

Diplomats and other observers point to the recent arrests and harassment of opposition politicians as a matter of critical concern to some donors. They also recall recent charges in the Kenya Times, the paper of the ruling KANU party, that the US and British business communities were allegedly linked to the racist KKK group in a plot with the opposition to restore colonialism in the country.

The list of troublesome events also includes a charge by President Moi himself that Italians were allegedly conspiring with the opposition to create chaos in the country.

And it includes the arrest of two Norwegian journalists who were looking into the trial of a leading Kenyan dissident.

The independent weekly newspaper "the East African" commented recently that for a country that needs all the international good will it can muster ahead of the Paris talks, Kenya has, in its words, demonstrated a remarkable maladroitness of late in its foreign relations.

Still, Mr. Moi continues to renew its warnings about foreign conspiracies. And in his holiday speech this week, the Kenyan leader said that while his country appreciates constructive criticism from its friends, it loathes being dictated to on internal matters.

Unfortunately for Kenya, the confrontation comes at a time when most analysts say foreign dollars are desperately needed to sustain the pace of economic development in the country. The infrastructure is generally viewed as crumbling and financial assistance, whether from donors or from private investors, will be essential to the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the nation's road network as well as its strapped energy sector.

Rule of Law Deteriorates in Kenya

An increasingly volatile political climate in Kenya is raising concerns in some circles about that country's long-term stability. No, I didn’t write that now in January 2008 but in May 1995. Back then I discussed a series of events that some diplomats and opposition leaders were describing as evidence of an apparent deterioration of the rule of law.

One recent day in Nairobi, hundreds of ethnic Maasai -- most of them armed with traditional clubs and swords -- flooded the country's high court, disrupting legal proceedings. They later paraded noisily through the main streets of the capital on their way to an impromptu rally in a nearby city park.

Police did not intervene to prevent either the courtroom invasion, the march or the outdoor gathering.

Why not? The apparently well-orchestrated demonstrations were in support of a cabinet member who is himself Maasai, Kenya's powerful Minister for Local Government, William Ole Ntimama.

The very next day, though, police did step in to halt a workshop by a small group of civic activists who were discussing controversial constitutional reform questions.

The reason: the meeting, which was being held indoors at a Nairobi hotel, was described as an unlicensed and therefore illegal gathering. One lawyer attending the meeting decried what he saw as a double-standard by Kenyan authorities.

“They (officials) should come here and address fellow Kenyans and tell us why Kenyans can't hold a meeting. And what moral authority they have that (local government minister) Ntimama can flood the streets here and the park, and whether we have two nations in this country -- where one nation has particular laws and the other nation is above the law.”

Those are questions that are increasingly being asked in opposition and diplomatic circles in Kenya. Kenneth Matiba, Chairman of the opposition Ford-Asili party, claims the police force in the country has been transformed into a political force to be used by President Daniel Arap Moi and his ruling KANU party in repressing citizens. He charges opposition politicians are now followed everywhere by police who, he claims, disrupt everything they do.

Mr. Matiba's charges are echoed by Paul Muite, a lawyer and opposition member of Parliament. Mr. Muite is involved with reknowned conservationist Richard Leakey in a new and as-yet-unnamed opposition political party that has come under unusually harsh criticism from the President and other top officials of the government and the ruling party.

Mr. Muite charges that the government is now spending what he claims is a disproportionate share of its resources for security on the police special branch -- a group whose main preoccupation, according to Mr. Muite, is trailing opposition members of Parliament and activists. He claims the special branch is being used, in his words, to prop up the KANU regime and sustain it in power.

Mr. Muite was himself arrested recently along with two Norwegian journalists and several other persons. They were charged with possessing seditious documents and taking illegal photographs of a police station. The documents were written by Kenyan dissident Koigi Wa Wamwere, who is on trial for his alleged involvement in an attack last year on the police station in question. Mr. Muite is his defense lawyer and the journalists and the others had spent the day observing his trial.

These and other recent events have led some diplomats to say they are now seriously worried about what they see as a deterioration of the rule of law in Kenya. They say the current climate causes them to be concerned about the country's long-term stability.

Kenya and The Word “Tribe”

I noticed in reviewing Blogafrica this morning that Ethan Zuckerman (“My Heart’s in Accra http://www.ethanzuckerman.com/blog/ ) cited the allAfrica.com item about the problems posed by journalists using the word “tribe” or “tribalism” in recent articles about the latest crisis in Kenya.
Here is a key section from the allAfrica.com item:

“…the pattern of oversimplifying African conflicts to "tribe" is pervasive and long-standing. Of course, changing the terminology will not solve conflicts, whatever their roots. But many analysts have long argued that "tribe" is particularly pernicious in diverting attention from the structural and immediate causes of violence by attributing it to supposedly immutable and irrational divisions.

“This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains a paper from the Africa Policy Information Center, written ten years ago, called "Talking about 'Tribe.'

“In this paper we argue that anyone concerned with truth and accuracy should avoid the term "tribe" in characterizing African ethnic groups or cultures. This is not a matter of political correctness. Nor is it an attempt to deny that cultural identities throughout Africa are powerful, significant and sometimes linked to deadly conflicts. It is simply to say that using the term "tribe" does not contribute to understanding these identities or the conflicts sometimes tied to them. There are, moreover, many less loaded and more helpful alternative words to use.”

(The full item is at http://allafrica.com/stories/200801080683.html )

This reminded me of when I was sent out as a correspondent to Kenya in 1993 and was warned in advance that I should never use the word “tribe” or variations thereof. I understood the rationale but still, such admonitions are a kind of temptation. So less than a year after taking up my duties in Kenya, my chance to use the word came in the form of direct comments by the man who was then Kenya's foreign minister, then using the full name of Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. (Now he is the country’s just appointed Vice President and has dropped the Stephen. See http://www.kalonzomusyokaforpresident.co.ke/ )

He had no apparent trouble using the T word. Here is the March 1994 story.

Kenya’s Foreign Minister has rejected suggestions that the country's ruling party is preparing to jettison the multi-party system. But the official, Stephen Musyoka, says tribalism (eds: his word) is threatening democracy in Kenya.

Mr. Musyoka says there can be no question of Kenya reverting to the single-party system abandoned three years ago.

But the Kenyan Foreign Minister told reporters in Nairobi the country's ruling party has a right to examine what has to be done in order for democracy to flourish.

He suggests political pluralism has exacerbated tensions between the country's various ethnic groups and is now jeopardizing Kenya's democratic system.

“As long as you continue to think in terms of which tribe one comes from, majority tribe, minority tribes, and the like, then you're not really talking in the best interests of democracy. . . Democracy cannot thrive in a situation of tribalism.”

Mr. Musyoka made the comments in response to a question about Kenyan President Daniel Arap Moi's recent announcement that his governing KANU party would soon launch a review of the multi-party system introduced in 1991 under the intense pressure of the country's major western aid donors.

Pointing to recurring political violence since then, Mr. Moi complained about what he called the agony suffered by Kenyans as a result of the shift from single-party rule.

Mr. Moi has accused some opposition leaders of using ethnicity to divide Kenyans for what he has termed selfish political reasons.

But opposition officials, as well as some western diplomats, have in turn accused Mr. Moi and other Kenyan authorities of manipulating tribal allegiances and even fueling ethnic violence for their own purposes.

These officials and diplomats have also expressed concern that the announced KANU review of multi-partyism could lead to a reversal in the process of democratization and a renewal of political repression.

Angola Continues to Accuse Neighbors of Helping UNITA

Also in August, 1999, though the furor over alleged UNITA aircraft and missile purchases had died off, there were continued Angolan claims the rebels were getting help from neighboring countries in acquiring weapons. In this instance, South African officials denied Angolan charges that a large stockpile of weapons destined for the UNITA rebel movement was located on the outskirts of Pretoria.

The official "News of Angola" (Noticias de Angola) claims the weapons destined for Jonas Savimbi's UNITA rebels include T-62 tanks, BM-21 Armored Personnel Carriers, and ground-to-ground missiles. It claims the weapons were acquired by UNITA in the Ukraine and arrived in South Africa via Mozambique.

But a spokesman for South Africa's Foreign Affairs Department calls the Angolan claim "utter rubbish" and says there is no substance whatsoever to the allegation. The spokesman says that South Africa -- in a bid to help promote peace in Angola -- fully supports UN sanctions aimed at preventing UNITA from acquiring military supplies.

Angolan authorities have frequently accused other countries in the region of providing clandestine support to the rebels. In an interview on Angolan state television last week, Angolan Foreign Minister Joao Miranda said his country has no ill-feelings towards South Africa, and said relations between the two are not clouded.

But Mr. Miranda again charged South-African territory is being used to channel supplies to UNITA. He also repeated Angolan government charges that Zambia remains involved in providing assistance to the rebel movement. He urged Zambians, in government and in the private sector, to discontinue all contacts with UNITA leader Savimbi and to stop assisting the rebels.

UN authorities hope to strengthen sanctions against UNITA in an effort to bring Angola's long-running civil war to an end. In addition to halting the flow of military supplies to the rebels, UN officials also hope to halt UNITA's exports of diamonds, used by the rebels to finance their arms purchases.

Back to Angola: It’s 1999 and Savimbi is Still Alive

The leader of Angola's UNITA rebel movement, Jonas Savimbi, says he favors a renewed dialogue with the government of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos. But as I reported in August 1999, Mr. Savimbi warned if the government did not show that it wants peace, then his rebels were prepared to fight on indefinitely to show they could never be destroyed.

The Angolan rebel leader, speaking by satellite telephone from his headquarters in the Central Highlands, made his comments in an interview with the Voice of America’s Portuguese Service.

Mr. Savimbi indicated he was giving the rare interview to coincide with a summit meeting of southern African leaders in Mozambique. One of the main topics on the summit agenda is the conflict in Angola.

The rebel leader charged that the government of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos is out to destroy UNITA. But he warned if the government, as expected, soon launches a new offensive, its forces will eventually be put on the defensive.

He said his forces have already struck close to the capital Luanda. He said if they want to go all the way into the overcrowded port city, they will be able to do so.

Nevertheless, Mr. Savimbi repeated his desire for dialogue. When asked if UNITA, which failed to live up to its demilitarization commitments under a United Nations brokered 1994 peace agreement, could be trusted, he turned the question around and asked if the government in Luanda could be trusted.

He said UNITA -- in his words -- "gave its all" during the implementation of the peace accord, but he charged the government failed to live up to its obligations.

The government broke off talks with the rebels last year. Officials have said UNITA cannot be trusted and have vowed to wipe it out militarily.

At the southern African leaders' summit in Mozambique, Angolan authorities are again expected to appeal for military help from other countries region.

After a silence of some two years, this is the second broadcast interview Mr. Savimbi has given in the past two weeks. When Angola's state-controlled television and the independent Roman Catholic "Radio Ecclesia" station in Luanda broadcast excerpts of the previous interview, conducted by the British Broadcasting Corporation, police called in leading journalists at the two institutions for questioning and confiscated taped copies of the interview.

The Tragedy of Politics in Kenya, Part Two

Western donors, diplomats and other foreign observers are increasingly concerned about what they see as disturbing signs of a deteriorating political climate in Kenya. Most are worried about the prospects for long-term stability in the country; some are also worried about what they view as erratic behavior by Kenya's President, Daniel Arap Moi. I wrote those words in May, 1995. Do they still resonate in 2008? Raila Odinga’s name pops up in this story.

One day recently, the Kenya Times, the paper of President Moi's ruling KANU party, startled readers with a purported front page expose. It claimed prominent white Kenyan conservationist Richard Leakey joined American and British business executives at a luncheon with representatives of the racist KKK organization.

The paper claimed the US-based Klan was pledging its support to a new and as-yet-unnamed opposition political party which Mr. Leakey is associated with -- a party which President Moi and his supporters charge is working with western powers to restore colonialism in Kenya.

The claim that members of the American and British Business Associations, the ABA and the BBA, were consorting with racists drew an angry denial from the US and British embassies. US Embassy spokesman Louis Segesvary reads from an official american protest letter sent to the Kenya Times.

“This allegation is completely false. There was no such meeting and there are no connections between the ABA and the BBA and the Ku Klux Klan. Any suggestion to that effect is not only slanderous to these two respected organizations but ill serves the people of Kenya… Such baseless attacks undermine business confidence in Kenya and deter further investment.”

But the pattern of critical verbal attacks on foreigners does not stop there. In a separate charge, President Moi recently accused another prominent opposition politician, Raila Odinga, of conspiring with Italians in Kenya to cause chaos.
Italian Ambassador Roberto Di Leo was surprised -- and outraged.

“I am not very happy, of course, with what is going on. To be on all the pages of the papers saying that Italians are trying to destabilize the country, it's not very pleasant.”

When Di Leo pressed the government for further details of the alleged conspiracy in order to offer his government's assistance, he was rebuffed -- just as were the US and British embassies after their protests. A commentary in the Kenya Times charged foreign missions were stirring up trouble in Kenya and said demands for vital internal security information amounted to interference in the country's sovereign affairs.

President Moi has played a key role in what one leading independent newspaper in Nairobi has characterized as the “war-talk that has everybody stunned." In addition to his criticism of foreigners and their alleged designs, he has repeatedly accused opposition leaders of involvement with guerrilla groups in neighboring countries that are allegedly out to overthrow his government. He has been especially harsh and often racially-insulting in his attacks on Richard Leakey, who was a favorite of western donors when he served as director of Kenya's Wildlife Service under Mr. Moi.

Despite all this, Mr. Moi is still appealing to foreign investors to participate in Kenya's economic development. He said in a recent speech investors from abroad should not worry because the country is stable.

But many observers in Nairobi say the talk of alleged guerrilla threats and foreign conspiracies is sending a distinctly different message -- especially when coupled with recent signs of repression, such as the arrest and harassment of opposition politicians and reporters.

While some Kenyans are shrugging it all off as part of the ebb-and-flow of what they call the normal political game in Kenya, western analysts remain troubled. They say they are beginning to wonder about the stability not only of the country but of President Moi himself, whose recent behavior they consider erratic.


Then in November 1995, I had this: opposition parliamentarians in Kenya say President Daniel Arap Moi is a dictator and they are urging other Commonwealth countries to pressure him to implement political reforms. I reported on an opposition letter released to coincide with the opening of a Commonwealth summit in New Zealand. Again Raila Odinga’s name appears.

In a letter to the Commonwealth Secretary-General, a group of 10 prominent Kenyan opposition politicians asserts that President Moi, in their words, is a dictator in the same mould as Nigerian leader Sani Abacha. They say Commonwealth countries should bring pressure on Mr. Moi to implement political reforms or else they warn Kenya could eventually suffer the same kind of bloodshed and horror that have occurred in places like Rwanda and Somalia.

The opposition parliamentarians, including Paul Muite and Raila Odinga, list several specific issues which they want Commonweath leaders to raise with Mr. Moi. The issues include government control over radio and television, what the letter describes as draconian laws against public gatherings and free speech, the harassment and intimidation of journalists, and the alleged abuse of Kenya's judicial system to oppress government critics.

The letter also calls for probes of alleged political murders and official attempts to promote ethnic divisions within the country.

The opposition parliamentarians charge that without political reforms, there will be no chance of holding free and fair elections in Kenya. At the same time, they criticize the Moi government for blocking the registration of new political parties despite what they say is its professed commitment to pluralism.

In a separate statement, opposition leader Kenneth Matiba is also urging Commonwealth leaders to review the political situation in Kenya. Mr. Matiba says if President Moi refuses to enact reforms, then he believes the Commonwealth should consider suspending Kenya's membership or expelling it altogether.

The Tragedy of Politics in Kenya

Many years ago, as a reporter based in Nairobi, I recall asking a Kenyan man ahead of elections whether he favored then President Daniel Arap Moi or one of the country’s opposition leaders. The man, without hesitation, launched into a verbally vicious attack on Moi, calling him a scoundrel and a thief, a dictator and a thug, and other names.

So, I said, I guess when it comes to an election, you’ll vote for the opposition candidate.

Oh no, said the man, I will vote for Moi.

When I said I was confused, the man explained: Moi has been in power so long, he and his cronies have stolen all they really want, have become fabulously wealthy and now only need (and I coined this phrase) “maintenance level corruption”. If we elect the opposition, he said, it will be very bad for us because they will be starting their corruption fresh. They will take everything, leaving us nothing. So that’s why I will vote for Moi.

Well, Mr. Moi is no longer President. But as the latest stories from Kenya make clear, the reluctance of an incumbent President to peacefully hand over power to the opposition is still a real problem.

I have looked back in my files from Kenya to see what I had to report in the past about the Odinga family, including the “losing” candidate in the latest Kenyan election, Raila Odinga. Perhaps there will be some repeating patterns.

First, from February 1994, a report on Oginga Odinga, who was Kenya’s first vice president and, until his death, leader of Kenya's opposition. The report opened with an original and prophetic soundbite from the late Mr. Odinga:

“We agree to be governed but we also demand the right to control our governors. This cannot happen without democracy, without free and fair elections.”

That was Mr. Odinga in 1991, announcing the formation of an opposition political party when Kenya was still just a one-party state. But his remarks could just as well have reflected his position 30 years earlier when he was among those Kenyans who successfully led the struggle for the country's independence from Britain.

Those two struggles -- first for independence and later for the introduction of multi-party democracy -- defined his political life and also led him to clash with the country's only two Presidents -- Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel Arap Moi -- both of whom at various points ordered his detention.

But his determination also earned Mr. Odinga wide respect. In the days since Mr. Odinga's death from natural causes late last month, mourners by the tens of thousands have taken to the streets repeatedly around the country in public displays of grief. To his supporters, such demonstrations of affection came as no surprise.

Kijana Wamalwa is Mr. Odinga's temporary successor as head of the opposition Ford Kenya party.

“Jaramogi Oginga Odinga belonged to everybody in Kenya. He was a great son of this country and in one way or another the whole of this country has benefited from his wisdom.”

Many felt that because of his stature as one of Kenya's founding fathers he deserved a formal state funeral and burial in an honored spot in the capital, Nairobi.

But Mr. Odinga's family announced last week that he would buried near his home outside Kisumu, in western Kenya. Some family members supported a Kisumu burial, saying it was in accordance with the traditions of Mr. Odinga's ethnic group, the Luos. And President Moi suggested a burial in western Kenya was also what Mr. Odinga wanted.

But the family released a blistering statement that essentially accused the government of blocking not only a Nairobi burial but also of declining a request for a formal viewing ceremony for the body at the Parliament building.

Mourners who have taken to the streets in recent days have been quick to voice their opinion that the government's approach has been insulting. Here is the reaction of one Kenyan man:

“He's a hero. He's the first person, he's one of the first people who fought for our independence, Kenya. That's why being buried in rural area is like throwing somebody in a dustbin. But in Nairobi, each and everyone will remember him. Okay that is the only honor everyone can do for him for his name not to disappear.”

Ultimately, the government did order national flags to be lowered in Mr. Odinga's honor. But Kenya's leading daily newspaper, the Nation, said in an editorial that the government's response was, in its words, "to say the least, restrained -- like a tight-lipped waiter grudgingly leading an unwelcome diner to a poor table in an ill-lit corner."

Still, some members of Mr. Odinga's family are holding out hope that one day he will be accorded the full state honors that they believe he deserves.

Then, in March 1995, it was Raila Odinga who was mentioned in an article about more suspect political shenanigans in Kenya:


Kenya remains firmly in the grip of guerrilla fever, a government-sponsored outcry over the existence of previously-unknown rebel groups out to overthrow President Daniel Arap Moi.

But critics, both Kenyan and foreign, contend the specter of a guerrilla threat is intended to divert attention from more serious problems.

Since March first, the Kenya Times, the paper of the ruling Kenya African National Union party (KANU), has been running a series of reports about the February 18th movement, an alleged guerrilla group based in Uganda. Kenyan authorities say it is out to topple the Moi government.

The Kenya Times bills its reports as exclusives. Critics describe them as works of fiction.

In any event, the series has so far linked the guerrillas to a host of traditional western political demons, including Soviet Communism and Libya. It has also linked the rebels to President Moi's domestic opponents.

The Times has claimed, for example, that Brigadier John Odongo, the alleged leader of the guerrilla group, is a veteran soldier educated in Moscow who favored communist ideals. It has also charged that Kenyan opposition political leaders raised funds that were sent to Uganda to buy guns for the guerrillas.

In addition, the Times has alleged February 18th commandos acquired explosives from Libya that were to be used to assassinate key Kenyan personalities. Another report asserted that a former Ugandan university lecturer wrote a blueprint for the guerrillas titled "ten ways toward the removal of Moi".

The Times went on to claim that recent demands by the Kenyan opposition and the US Ambassador to Kenya for an easing of state controls over broadcasting were part of the guerrilla masterplan for destabilizing the country.

The Times has also blasted the United Nations and foreign donor countries in its series. It has, for example, alleged that UN refugee camps were used as bases by conspirators plotting against Kenya. It has also charged that the rebels received speedboat motors through an international relief agency, motors that were paid for by Kenyan exiles in Scandinavia and which were to be used in attacks on Kenyan villages along Lake Victoria. The Times has maintained that fake Kenyan passports were supplied to dissidents in a racket involving senior Ugandan officials and the guerrillas. In addition, it has claimed that the guerrillas, backed by Ugandan soldiers, tried to set up bases in Kenya and to recruit disenchanted ex-servicemen and jobless youths.

In one edition, the Times even printed a photograph purporting to show three so-called "boy soldiers" of the February 18th movement with AK-47 assault rifles. The paper said the photo was taken by a guerrilla instructor after a training session. It did not say how it obtained the photo.

Despite the extensive detail, diplomatic sources in Nairobi and Kampala say they have been unable to find any evidence to suggest there is anything substantive to the claims published in the Kenya Times.

Instead, these sources suggest what is happening is a familiar Kenyan pattern of "sound and fury and howling at the moon" aimed at diverting popular attention in Kenya from such problems as unemployment, corruption and the country's decaying infrastructure.

Opposition Kenyan parliament member Raila Odinga said recently there are no guerrillas outside Kenya. Mr. Odinga claims the only real guerrillas are in Kenya itself -- in his words -- "the economic guerrillas who have over the years sabotaged our economy."

Some sources believe the sudden discovery of an alleged guerrilla threat may also have been intended to divert attention from reports earlier this year that President Moi had either died or been incapacitated by illness. These reports circulated unchecked for days and diplomats say they seriously marred President Moi's image as a leader and statesman.

[More from Kenya’s past in the next posting.]

Coming Up Tomorrow (Friday): Blasts from the Past in Kenya

I've been going through some old stories from the 1990's when multi-party democracy was just finding a place in Kenya. And I've been finding some interesting tidbits that might be of some relevance to the current crisis there. Here as a tease is a quote that appears in one of these archive pieces. It's from the late Oginga Odinga, who was Kenya’s first Vice President and, until his death, leader of Kenya's opposition.

“We agree to be governed but we also demand the right to control our governors. This cannot happen without democracy, without free and fair elections.”

An interlude (Lesotho-style)

My friend, author, former reporter and now Humane Society (US) communications exec John Balzar, once told a story about a reporting trip he made to Lesotho.

He says he was driving along in the countryside of this small Southern African country when he noticed a man riding a horse, followed by a woman, apparently his wife, trudging behind him on foot, carrying a load of firewood.

John says he was struck by the apparent unfairness of this scene, so he stopped. He asked the man on horseback why was he riding while his wife was walking. John says the man looked at him as if he were a moron.

The answer was simple, said the man, “she does not have a horse.”

(And by the way, if you haven’t done so, read John’s book “Yukon Alone.” In the heat of an African summer I can guarantee just reading it will make you feel cool. It is wonderfully evocative writing, the kind we could use more of. More on the book at: http://books.google.com/books?id=JXrrEe-OWywC&dq=%22yukon+alone%22&pg=PP1&ots=tIBXYJ9HqR&sig=BxlbZS3mT0w0um1xTZgvVX1o8es&hl=en&prev=http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Yukon+Alone%22&sa=X&oi=print&ct=title&cad=one-book-with-thumbnail )

UNITA’s MiG Disinformation Plot Revealed: “What is a Frog?”

Now, leap ahead with me to November 2002. The Angolan civil war is finally over. Jonas Savimbi is dead. And the new leader of UNITA says the reports that the rebel group once possessed fighter jets and helicopters were a disinformation ploy. I wasn’t especially surprised though I still think other interests besides the rebels were also involved.

UNITA Secretary-General Paulo Lukamba Gato says the rebels never had fighters or helicopters, just a desire to mislead government forces.

In an interview in Luanda, Mr. Gato says the aircraft claims were a ruse. He says UNITA was playing what he characterizes as a mind game with the Angolan government.

He adds, quoting now, "let us not forget that it was said during the war. That was the context."

Several news organizations, and this reporter, cited independent security sources as saying more than three years ago that the well-armed rebels, then fighting a civil war, had acquired six MiG-23 jet fighters, allegedly from suppliers in the Ukraine. There were also news reports alleging UNITA had obtained several Mi-25 Hind helicopters.

The security sources who told reporters about the aircraft had contacts with UNITA, but claimed to have independent knowledge of the jets and helicopters. One source even cited an eyewitness who purportedly had seen the aircraft in rebel-held territory.

But there were never any confirmed reports of such aircraft being used during the war, which ended earlier this year after government troops killed rebel leader Jonas Savimbi.

UNITA's denial that it ever had combat aircraft follows the recent release of a report by the UN Angola-sanctions monitoring committee that deals with the rebels' weapons stockpiles. It credits the military wing of UNITA with turning over what are described as "huge quantities of weapons to the government" as part of a post-war rebel demilitarization process.

But the same UN report also says "considerable amounts of arms remain unaccounted for." It warns these weapons could resurface in Angola and be traded by criminal arms brokers, perhaps across the country's porous borders, into unstable countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Alternatively, UN monitors warn unaccounted-for weapons could remain inside Angola, where they might fall into the hands of disaffected elements who could use them for criminal activities or possibly to launch a new rebellion against the government.

The UN report lists a wide array of weapons that have been turned in, mostly small arms. The limited number of pieces of heavy equipment consist of artillery pieces, anti-aircraft guns, and mortars. The report says seven missiles were turned in, but gives no details of what type.

According to South Africa's Institute for Security Studies, UNITA received from its Ukrainian suppliers so-called Frog-7 ground-to-ground missiles with a range of 70-kilometers. Such missiles could have been used to rain terror onto government-held cities, including the capital, Luanda. But no such attacks were ever recorded.

Mr. Gato denies the rebels had this type of weapon, acting as if he had never heard of it and asking 'what is a FROG?'